Diesel Subsidy Reform Fuel Search Trends

Writer & Data Visualisation: Shaza Al Muzayen | Editor: Sakina Mohamed | Designer: Ummul Syuhaida Othman

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 14 (Bernama) -- Targeted diesel subsidies have saved the government more than RM600 million a month, but when it was first implemented back in June, many had questions.

The measure was taken to curb the rampant diesel leakages and smuggling taking place in the country, which had already cost Malaysia billions of ringgits in losses.

It was also a way to cut government spending on diesel subsidies which went from RM1.4 billion in 2019 to RM14.3 billion in 2023 - a whopping 921 percent increase in five years.

The Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim revealed during the tabling of Budget 2025 that the sales of subsidised diesel sales have dropped by 30 percent, thanks to the measure.

Bernama tracked Google Trends data before and after the implementation of targeted diesel subsidies to look at what it was that concerned the rakyat, and here is what we found.

Most Searches Came from North & East Coast States

Analysis of Google search data from January 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, showed a large spike in search interest on ‘diesel fuel’ between June 9 and June 15, 2024. 

The sudden surge in searches using this term was likely fuelled by the announcement of targeted diesel subsidies by Finance Minister II, Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan on June 9, 2024.

In the month leading up to the implementation of targeted subsidies, states in Malaysia's north and east coast, such as Pahang (100), Kelantan (94), Terengganu (90), Kedah (77), and Perlis (76), exhibited the highest search interest for the term ‘diesel fuel’.

Notable breakout related topics from May 9 – June 9, 2024 included ‘Fuel’ in Pahang, ‘Toyota Hilux’ in Kelantan, ‘Oil’ in Terengganu and Kedah, and ‘Subsidy’ in Perlis.

(Google uses the term ‘breakout’ to mark interest in search terms that grew by more than 5000 percent.)

This trend continued into the week following the start of the subsidies, from June 10-16, 2024.

Leading in search interest were Kelantan (100), Kedah (95), Pahang (95), Perak (85), and Terengganu (76). Topics like ‘Petrol’ in Kelantan, ‘Fuel Card’ in Kedah, and ‘Vehicle’ in Terengganu also saw significant spikes in interest during this time.

On June 9, 2024, Finance Minister II, Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan, announced that on June 10, 2024 diesel fuel prices in Peninsular Malaysia will be set at RM3.35 per litre (reflecting the market price without subsidy). He also announced that the same date would see the beginning of the disbursement of the BUDI MADANI cash assistance. 

Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan,
Finance Minister II
Credit: Bernama


Bernama decided to compare Malaysia's search interest in ‘diesel fuel’ in the month before the start of the targeted diesel subsidies (May 9, 2024, to June 9, 2024) against the week following the start of the targeted subsidies (June 10, 2024, to June 16, 2024).

During the same periods, cities and towns from the north and east coast also dominated the search rankings.

Between May 9, 2024, and June 9, 2024, seven out of the top 10 cities that googled ‘diesel fuel’ were from this region, with Pantai Remis (Perak), Ayer Hitam (Johor), Tanjong Sepat (Selangor), Raub District (Pahang), Chukai (Terengganu) among the top.

In the following week (June 10-16, 2024), nine of the top 10 cities were from the same area, with Simpang (Perak), Batu Kurau (Perak), and Brinchang (Pahang) leading in search interest.

No data was available for Labuan as it had little to no search interest in ‘diesel fuel’ on Google. The term was also not very popular in Sabah and Sarawak - with both states consistently on the lower end of the search interest rankings in both time periods. This makes sense as the diesel subsidy reforms were only implemented in Peninsular Malaysia.

The steady interest in ‘diesel fuel’ in Malaysia's north and east coast states reflects public concern over the impact targeted diesel subsidies might have on the region. Diesel fuel is critical for transportation and business operations, as well as for agriculture and fishing, which are major industries in these areas.

Diesel is the fuel that powers the agricultural and fishing sectors in Malaysia. Agricultural machinery and equipment, along with fishing boats and trawlers, rely on diesel to keep the industries running and alive.

Estimates provided by the Department of Agriculture in 2022 showed the highest concentration of farmers in Peninsular Malaysia (68.2 percent) were located in the north and east coast.

Kedah had the most farmers (66,886), followed by Johor (64,501), Kelantan (50,765), Pahang (44,253), Perak (43,694), Selangor (20,966), Perlis (18,201), Terengganu (14,286), Penang (8,741), Negeri Sembilan (8,474) and Malacca (8,254).

The north and east coast of Peninsular Malaysia also has the highest concentration of fishermen, accounting for 65.7 percent of the total.

Based on the 2021 Registrar of Fishermen Association, Perak had the largest number of fishermen (13,194), followed by Johor (8,580), Kedah (8,022), Terengganu (6,586), Penang (5,684), Kelantan (3,962), Selangor (3,732), Perlis (3,144), Pahang (2,638), Malacca (1,068) and Negeri Sembilan (558).

Reflecting this, fishermen in these regions also received the bulk of the subsidised diesel fuel, making up 77.2 percent of the total.

According to the Fisheries Development Authority of Malaysia (LKIM), fishermen in Perak received the most subsidised diesel in 2021 (3,823). This is followed by Selangor (1,535), Kelantan (1,477), Kedah (1,121), Terengganu (1,008), Pahang (847), Perlis (616), Johor (571), Penang (410), Malacca (81) and Negeri Sembilan (24).

The correlation between the concentration of fishermen and diesel allocation highlights the vital role fuel subsidies play in supporting these coastal communities.

Higher Search Interest in ‘Diesel Smuggling’

People that googled for the term 'diesel fuel’ in the month before the start of the targeted diesel subsidies also combed through Google for a number of different topics.

The 10 topics that had a sudden high interest, or breakout, in searches were identified (in descending order) as ‘Ministry of Domestic Trade and Cost of Living’, ‘Aid’, ‘Qualification’, ‘Individual’, ‘Luxury Car’, ‘Peninsular Malaysia’, ‘KIA Sorento’, ‘Mechanic’, ‘Diesel Multiple Unit’ and ‘Sulfur’.

The number one breakout related topic, ‘Ministry of Domestic Trade and Cost of Living’, refers to Malaysia’s Ministry of Domestic Trade and Cost of Living (KPDN). It is the ministry responsible for matters related to the development of domestic trade and consumerism and is one of the ministries involved in implementing the current targeted subsidies for diesel fuel. KPDN also oversees the MySubsidi Diesel system.

There is a marked difference in results prior to the restructuring of diesel subsidies, compared to the breakout related topics in the week following the start of the targeted diesel subsidies.

The number one breakout related topic during this period was ‘Smuggling’. Malaysia has long been plagued by issues with diesel smuggling, especially with illegal cross-border diesel activity with neighbouring Thailand.

The 10 breakout topics at this time were (in descending order) ‘Smuggling’, ‘Fuel Efficiency’, ‘Anwar Ibrahim’, ‘Malaysian Islamic Party’, ‘Permit’, ‘Ministry of Finance Malaysia’, ‘Nissan Navara’, ‘BHP’, ‘Toyota Fortuner’ and ‘Grant’.

These cities and towns (in descending order) that googled ‘diesel fuel’ the most were

Simpang (Perak)
Batu Kurau (Perak)
Parit Sulong (Johor)
Gerik (Perak)
Brinchang (Pahang)
Temerloh (Pahang)
Muadzam Shah (Pahang)
Tumpat (Kelantan)
Maran (Pahang)
Gua Musang (Kelantan)

A 2017 report on the worldwide theft of refined oil products mentions that Thai authorities had since the mid-1990s identified massive diesel and petrol smuggling operations in the country, especially in its southern provinces bordering Malaysia. It has been estimated that up to three million litres in fuel are smuggled daily over land from Malaysia to Thailand, with an annual value of US$1.2 billion (≈RM5.2 billion) in Thailand and US$0.54 billion (≈RM2.3 billion) in Malaysia.

In addition to smuggling, diesel leakages have also become a concern for the government. According to the government, leakages caused by the continued misuse of subsidised diesel by ineligible commercial parties, such as construction companies, have contributed towards the increased use of subsidised diesel in the country. From 2019 to 2023, use of subsidised diesel rose from 6.1 billion litres to 10.8 billion litres, while usage of unsubsidised commercial diesel decreased by more than 2 billion litres for each year.

Due to the rising cases of diesel leakages and smuggling, KPDN launched last year Ops Tiris with the aim to combat illicit fuel activities. During Ops Tiris 1.0 and 2.0, which took place from March 1, 2023, to December 31, 2023, a total of 15,927 inspections were carried out nationwide at petrol stations, wholesalers, manufacturers, quarries, control posts and other premises. A total of 877 cases of diesel leakages and smuggling were identified in that time, with 6,441,118 litres of diesel worth RM14.2 million seized.

The ongoing Ops Tiris 3.0 has seen an increase in enforcement efforts from the KPDN. From January 1, 2024, until October 19, 2024, nationwide inspections carried out under Ops Tiris 3.0 nearly doubled compared to last year’s Ops Tiris 1.0 and 2.0 (15,927 to 30,634 inspections). As a result, 1,561 cases of diesel misappropriation were identified - representing a 78 percent increase compared to 2023. The amount of diesel seized during this period was also larger, with a total of 13.8 million litres of subsidised diesel worth more than RM31 million confiscated.

Data was extracted through KPDN press releases from 2022-2024, as well as related news reports by Bernama within that period.

The hope is that the targeted diesel subsidies would help reduce such activities from continuing to take place in the country. So far, reports from the government look promising.

As previously reported by Bernama on July 14, the government estimates that it has prevented over RM250 million worth of diesel leakages and smuggling since the implementation of targeted diesel subsidies on June 10.

KPDN’s Deputy Minister, Fuziah Salleh, had also informed the Dewan Rakyat on July 16 that there had been a 27 percent decrease in retail diesel sales in the first week of the targeted subsidies. There had also been an increase in commercial diesel sales (44 percent) and a 24 percent decrease in diesel sales at the border.

She also mentioned that a comparison of Ops Tiris data from 20 days before the start of the targeted subsidies and 20 days after it was started showed a 78 percent decrease in diesel leakages and an 87 percent decrease in diesel seizures.

BUDI MADANI

The BUDI MADANI cash assistance was disbursed the same day the diesel subsidy reforms took place. Unsurprisingly, the 10 breakout queries during that period had a lot to do with the cash assistance programme.

The top 10 searches were ‘Budi’, ‘Madani Diesel’, ‘Budi Madani’, Budi Madani Diesel’, ‘Subsidi Diesel Madani’, ‘Subsidi Diesel Budi Madani’, ‘柴油 津贴 (Diesel Allowance)’, ‘Harga Diesel Semasa’, ‘Permohonan Subsidi Diesel’ and ‘Diesel Naik Harga’.

The programme provides diesel fuel assistance to different beneficiaries via the BUDI Individu and BUDI Agri-Komoditi initiatives. 

BUDI Individu provides RM200 per month in aid to eligible Malaysian individuals owning diesel-based personal vehicles. BUDI Agri-Komoditi gives RM200 per month in aid to eligible small-scale farmers and commodity smallholders. There is no registration deadline for the programme.

It’s estimated that nearly 300,000 owners of diesel-based personal vehicles in Peninsular Malaysia are qualified to receive aid under BUDI Individu. Meanwhile, nearly 400,000 small-scale farmers and commodity smallholders are qualified to receive aid under BUDI Agri-Komoditi. As of June 19, 2024, the Ministry of Finance has approved 100,000 aid applications for BUDI Individu and BUDI Agri-Komoditi.

The 10 breakout queries

Bantuan Subsidi Diesel
Shell Fleet Card
Harga Diesel Sebelum dan Selepas
Wira Diesel
Lori Rigid
Diesel Fuel Subsidy Malaysia
Fleet Card
Diesel Fuel Subsidy
KPDN
SKDS

In comparison, people that googled ‘diesel fuel’ between June 10, 2024, to June 16, 2024, had more queries related to the diesel fleet card.

The 10 breakout queries at this time were ‘Bantuan Subsidi Diesel’, ‘Shell Fleet Card’, ‘Harga Diesel Sebelum dan Selepas’, ‘Wira Diesel’, ‘Lori Rigid’, ‘Diesel Fuel Subsidy Malaysia’, ‘Fleet Card’, ‘Diesel Fuel Subsidy’, ‘KPDN’ and ‘SKDS’.

The diesel fleet cards are a part of the Subsidised Diesel Control System (SKDS) initiative which is under KPDN’s MySubsidi Diesel programme. These cards enable eligible land transport and logistics companies to buy subsidised diesel at fuel retail stations. Currently, only 33 types of vehicles are qualified for SKDS.

KPDN’s Minister, Datuk Armizan Mohd Ali, had announced that the five oil companies (BHPetrol, Caltex, Petron, Petronas and Shell) participating in distributing cards through SKDS would assist in collectively providing one million fleet cards so that a continuous supply of cards is available for SKDS 2.0 (Phase I and II).

A total of 165,897 fleet cards have so far been issued to eligible companies. As of July 14, 248,887 diesel subsidy applications for vehicles under the SKDS initiative have been approved. However, recent data from KPDN showed that registration of vehicles eligible for SKDS is still unsatisfactory with only around 259,000 out of 410,000 vehicles registered.

-- BERNAMA 

About the Data

Please take note that the data collected through Google Trends is accurate as of July 9, 2024. Google Trends normalises search data to make comparisons between terms easier. Search results are normalised to the time and location of a query. Google Trends data reflects searches people make on Google every day, but it can also reflect irregular search activity, such as automated searches or queries that may be associated with attempts to spam Google’s search results.